Summary
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The world’s first spot XRP ETF, listed in Brazil, experienced a nearly 10% decline in its initial trading week amidst broader market volatility and selling pressure on XRP.
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The U.S. SEC has deferred its decision on a proposed spot XRP ETF until June 2025, a timeline that may align with developments in the SEC’s legal case against Ripple.
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Market sentiment, as indicated by prediction markets, suggests a 74% likelihood of a U.S. spot XRP ETF approval before the end of the year, despite current regulatory delays.
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While U.S. spot XRP ETFs await approval, three XRP futures ETFs have been greenlit by the SEC and are tentatively scheduled for a May launch, pending final confirmation.
The pioneering spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), trading under the symbol XRPH11 on Brazil’s B3 stock exchange, has experienced a challenging introduction, declining by approximately 10% within its first week of trading.
This early performance has been set against a backdrop of significant market turbulence.
Inaugural Spot XRP ETF Encounters Initial Market Difficulties
When viewed over the preceding five trading days, the ETF has registered a fall of 8.70%, a movement largely attributed to widespread volatility across the cryptocurrency sector.
Despite an initially positive launch, the fund has found it difficult to build positive traction, contending with the limitations of the comparatively smaller Brazilian market and substantial selling pressure on the underlying XRP asset.
At the time of reporting, XRP itself was valued at $2.10, reflecting a decrease of over 4% in the prior 24 hours.
Its performance every week, showing an 8.75% reduction, closely parallels the depreciation observed in the Brazilian ETF.
The future trajectory of this ETF will be noteworthy, particularly to see how it responds should XRP experience a market recovery, and especially if regulatory bodies in the United States eventually greenlight a comparable financial product.
US Regulatory Scrutiny and Decision Timelines for XRP ETFs
In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently announced a postponement in its deliberation regarding Franklin Templeton’s application for a spot XRP ETF.
The new deadline for a decision has been set for June 17, 2025.
This revised date is proximate to when the SEC is scheduled to provide an update on its appeal concerning Ripple’s partial legal success in 2023, due just two days prior.
Some legal observers suggest this scheduling might be a deliberate tactic, potentially allowing the regulatory agency an opportunity to resolve the ongoing litigation with Ripple before rendering a conclusive judgment on the ETF proposal.
Furthermore, the SEC is currently evaluating additional applications for spot XRP ETFs, with verdicts on these anticipated by the middle of October 2025.
Market Outlook and Emergence of XRP Futures ETFs
Concurrently, there is a growing sense of optimism among market participants regarding an eventual approval within the current year.
Data from the prediction market Polymarket, as of May 6, indicated a 74% probability for the approval of a US-based XRP ETF.
Although a spot XRP ETF in the United States has yet to receive approval, the SEC has authorized three XRP futures ETFs from ProShares.
While initial speculation pointed to an April 30 launch for these products, ProShares has since clarified that the introduction was deferred and is now provisionally planned for May 14, contingent upon final clearance from the SEC.
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