Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’s debate on September 10 caused significant disruptions in the financial sector, including prediction markets. The general consensus is that Harris outperformed Trump, and Polymarket’s data supports this assertion.
Finbold had previously reported that Donald Trump had established a more extensive advantage over Kamala Harris in prediction markets.
Trump had a 53% winning chance between September 4 and 6, according to Polymarket’s largest wager. In the interim, Harris’s likelihood of success fell to as low as 45% during the same period—a circumstance that has since stabilized.
Finbold obtained the most recent data from the widely used prediction market on September 11, which indicated that both candidates had an equal probability of 49%. This may be a direct consequence of the recent presidential debate, in which the Democratic Party’s representative dominated.
Traders worldwide utilize a free trading market to place their wagers by purchasing shares, which is the source of Polymarket’s data. Traders will be able to acquire each winning share at a variable exchange rate, with each worth one dollar in USDC.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris’s “yes” wager cost nearly $0.49 as of this writing, which translates to the prediction market’s winning chance. All holders of “yes” shares will receive a $0.51 per share dividend in the event that any of them secure the election.
It is intriguing that this provides traders with exceptionally favorable odds when they wager on either of the two candidates.
In the inaugural presidential debate on Tuesday evening, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris engaged in a clash. The 90-minute exchange was characterized by pointed assaults from both parties and covered a wide spectrum of issues.
Harris fiercely contested Trump’s legal issues and his response to the pandemic. Trump concentrated on inflation and immigration, which are areas in which the current administration is under scrutiny. When Trump made unsubstantiated claims about migrants consuming pets in Ohio, the debate took an unusual turn.
Economic policies, global conflicts, and abortion rights emerged as significant topics of debate. Trump criticized Harris’s policies and questioned her originality, while Harris portrayed herself as a middle-class advocate. With regard to international concerns such as Gaza and Ukraine, neither candidate provided comprehensive solutions.
The debate also addressed ethnicity, crime statistics, and election integrity, which were indicative of significant partisan differences. Taylor Swift, a musical icon, endorsed the Democratic ticket following the debate, which could potentially benefit Harris’s campaign. While prediction markets impart their influence, analysts are currently evaluating the debate’s influence on the presidential race.
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