Hoskinson says Ethereum will go extinct in 10 to 15 years like BlackBerry and Myspace

Summary

• Prediction of Demise: Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson forecasts Ethereum’s obsolescence within 10-15 years, likening its potential trajectory to that of defunct platforms like BlackBerry and Myspace.

• Core Criticisms: Hoskinson identifies fundamental weaknesses in Ethereum, including its technical architecture, the potential for Layer 2 solutions to drain value and fragment the ecosystem, a lack of robust on-chain governance, and increasing pressure from competitors like Solana and emerging Bitcoin DeFi.

• Current Network Struggles: Hoskinson’s views align with current challenges facing Ethereum, such as declining base-layer activity, key metrics hitting multi-year lows, a weakening deflationary mechanism, and indications of institutional investors like Galaxy Digital and Paradigm potentially reducing their ETH exposure.

• Contrasting Accumulation: Despite the pessimistic outlook and observed difficulties, there are reports of large investors (“whales”) continuing to accumulate Ether, indicating some belief in its recovery potential or long-term value proposition remains within the market.

Drawing parallels to the decline of once-dominant technologies like BlackBerry and Myspace, which failed to adapt amidst rapid market shifts, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has forecasted a limited lifespan for Ethereum.

He cites fundamental structural issues and challenges emerging from its Layer 2 ecosystem as key vulnerabilities.

Hoskinson’s 10-15 Year Timeline and Competitive Threats

During a recent “Ask Me Anything” (AMA) session, the American entrepreneur, who was also an early co-founder of Ethereum, projected that the leading smart contract platform may not endure beyond the next 10 to 15 years.

He argued that Layer 2 solutions will increasingly siphon value and innovation away (“suckle out all of the alpha”).

This, coupled with rising internal conflicts (“people will start fighting”) and the difficulty for figures like Vitalik Buterin to maintain cohesion, will lead users to migrate towards perceived superior alternatives like Bitcoin’s developing DeFi landscape (“eclipsed by Bitcoin DeFi”).

Hoskinson acknowledged Ethereum as a “brilliant project” but suggested it could become a casualty of its own early success, similar to predecessors like Myspace or BlackBerry.

He believes newer, more efficiently designed systems will ultimately prevail and pointed to direct competitive pressure from platforms like Solana (“eaten alive by Solana”).

Current Ecosystem Challenges Reflect Concerns

Hoskinson’s critical assessment aligns with several observable difficulties currently facing the Ethereum network.

Activity on the base layer has reportedly diminished significantly, with crucial metrics such as network fees and overall usage recently reaching multi-year lows.

Furthermore, the mechanism intended to make Ether (ETH) consistently deflationary has weakened, diminishing one of its key value propositions.

Institutional Shifts and L2 Strategy Impact

Institutional sentiment also appears cautious.

Recent on-chain data analysis suggested a rotation by investment firm Galaxy Digital away from Ethereum toward Solana.

Similarly, reports indicated that venture capital firm Paradigm reduced its ETH holdings, transferring a notable amount to Anchorage Digital—a platform historically used before potential distribution to major exchanges, according to analyst EmberCN.

The network’s “rollup-centric” scaling strategy, reliant on Layer 2 solutions, may be exhibiting unintended consequences.

By design, these L2s pull activity from the main chain, potentially contributing to reduced fee burning on the base layer and fostering ecosystem fragmentation.

Contrasting Whale Accumulation Amidst Downturn

Despite these challenging indicators and a cautious short-term outlook from some institutions (e.g., Standard Chartered lowering its 2025 ETH price forecast), counter-signals exist.

Some large investors (“whales“) have reportedly continued to accumulate ETH, suggesting a lingering belief among certain market participants in Ethereum’s recovery potential and underlying value, especially considering recent price levels.

Also Read: Charles Hoskinson Forecasts Bitcoin Surge to $250K as Trade Tensions Ease and Liquidity Returns

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