Summary
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Record Accumulation Despite Price Dip: Ethereum recently witnessed its largest-ever single-day inflow of ETH into accumulation addresses, suggesting strong long-term holder conviction, even though current prices mean many of these accumulators are holding at an unrealized loss (average cost basis $1,981 vs. current price below that).
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Mixed On-Chain Signals: While the number of active Ethereum addresses saw a positive uptick, indicating increased network engagement, activity within the crucial Decentralized Finance (DeFi) sector remained lackluster, with declining DEX volumes and steady transaction counts suggesting limited momentum.
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Significant Price Hurdle Ahead: Ethereum faces a critical resistance level around $1,895, backed by a large concentration of ETH purchased near that price and alignment with the key 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), potentially capping upward price movement.
Despite experiencing recent price downturns that pushed its value toward $1,400, Ethereum witnessed a notable surge in its accumulation addresses, registering inflows at levels not seen since 2018.
A particularly striking event occurred on April 22, marking a historical high for single-day accumulation flows: 449,000 Ether tokens, equivalent to roughly $785 million based on an average acquisition price of $1,750 for that day’s flow, were transferred into these designated wallets.
This behavior suggests that investors focused on long-term positioning retain conviction in Ethereum’s prospects, even as its price has faced headwinds.
Analysis of this cohort of accumulators reveals their current market status.
The calculated average acquisition price for all Ether held within these specific accumulation addresses stands at $1,981.
Given the current market price sits below this threshold, a significant portion of these long-term holders are presently holding unrealized losses on their positions.
Historically, since 2018, the collective average cost basis for these accumulation addresses had predominantly remained beneath Ethereum’s market value, highlighting that this recent phase, where the realized price has moved above the spot price, represents a shift in the dynamics of the long-term holder base.
Mixed Signals from Network Activity
Recent days have indicated some upward momentum in overall Ethereum network activity, specifically in terms of active participants. Between April 20th and 22nd, the number of actively used addresses on the network increased by 10%, climbing from approximately 306,211 to 336,366.
This rise in active participation, coupled with a degree of price recovery from recent lows, could be interpreted as signals of growing engagement and potentially renewed bullish sentiment among network participants.
Yet, this positive on-chain activity doesn’t fully translate to the decentralized finance sector built upon Ethereum, which appears relatively muted.
Data concerning DeFi shows a segment that remains subdued.
Figures from DefiLlama indicate a declining trend in decentralized exchange (DEX) trading volumes, while the overall number of transactions appears to be leveling off around a weekly average of approximately 1.3 million.
This stability in transaction count amidst declining volume points towards a lack of strong, expanding momentum within DeFi at this time.
Key Price Resistance Level Around $1,895
For Ethereum’s price trajectory, a critical resistance level is anticipated around the $1,895 mark.
Data from a Cost Basis Distribution heatmap reveals a substantial concentration of supply near this price point, specifically identifying a cluster where investors acquired 1.64 million ETH.
This level is likely to act as a psychological and structural barrier, potentially attracting selling pressure as these holders may look to recover their initial investment costs or realize small gains.
Technical analysis further supports the significance of the $1,895 level as a key hurdle.
This price range aligns closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily price chart—an indicator often watched by traders for potential trend shifts.
Should Ethereum’s price fail to overcome and sustain a position above this 50-day EMA, it could signal a continuation of bearish pressures.
Conversely, a convincing move higher and a break above this level could provide a more optimistic outlook for bulls hoping for a sustained upward price trajectory.
Also Read: Ethereum’s ‘Pectra’ update might impact use and validation
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