Ethereum’s 51% Attack Resistance Surpasses Bitcoin’s Claims Researcher Justin Drake

Summary

• Ethereum’s Social Layer as a Key Defense: Ethereum possesses a “social slashing” mechanism, a unique feature of its Proof-of-Stake (PoS) consensus. If an attacker is identified, the community (social layer) can coordinate to penalize the attacker and potentially fork the chain, a defense not available to Bitcoin’s Proof-of-Work (PoW) system.

• Debate on Feasibility Continues, but Barriers are High: While theoretically possible for both networks, experts like Hassan Khan note that practical barriers, such as Bitcoin’s immense computing power needs and Ethereum’s economic/governance deterrents in PoS, make sustained 51% attacks highly improbable.

According to Ethereum researcher Justin Drake, orchestrating a 51% attack against the Bitcoin network would be considerably less expensive than attempting a similar assault on Ethereum.

Drake estimates the cost to compromise Bitcoin in such a manner to be in the vicinity of $10 billion.

Comparing Attack Costs: Bitcoin vs. Ethereum

Justin Drake, a key figure in the development of Ethereum’s proof-of-stake (PoS) consensus mechanism and a principal architect of the Merge (Ethereum’s full transition to PoS), conveyed to Cointelegraph that a 51% attack on Bitcoin would be “much cheaper” to execute.

He suggested a figure “on the order of $10 billion” would be sufficient.

Drake’s assessment aligns with a May 14 X post by Grant Hummer, co-founder of Etherealize, an Ethereum-focused marketing and product company.

In his post, Hummer contended that Bitcoin’s security budget leaves it vulnerable, claiming an $8 billion cost for a successful 51% attack and asserting that such an attack becomes “virtually certain” if the cost drops to $2 billion.

A 51% attack happens when a single entity or coordinated group gains control over more than half of a blockchain’s mining (for proof-of-work) or staking (for proof-of-stake) power, thereby enabling them to manipulate the network.

Hummer further opined, “This will become blindingly obvious over the next decade.

ETH is the only truly decentralized crypto-asset that can become the internet’s [store of value].”

The Hefty Price Tag of an Ethereum Takeover

Drake elaborated that “to have 100% control of the chain, you need 50% + 1 of stake.”

He acknowledged that while an extremely challenging and costly endeavor, it is not entirely beyond the realm of possibility, stating, “A rich nation state can probably pull it off.”

At the time of this report, the amount of staked Ether (ETH) stood at 34,168,987, valued at nearly $89.6 billion.

Consequently, acquiring just over half of all staked ETH would necessitate an investment close to $44.8 billion.

The actual financial outlay would likely need to be substantially higher.

Ether currently boasts a market capitalization of $316 billion and a 24-hour trading volume of $25 billion (which is slightly over 8% of its market cap).

The ETH required for such an attack represents nearly 14.2% of the total market cap and a staggering 180% of the daily trading volume.

An attempt to acquire such a vast quantity of ETH would almost certainly trigger a significant appreciation in its price, thereby further escalating the overall cost of the attack.

Ethereum’s Unique Defense Mechanisms: The Social Layer

Matan Sitbon, founder and CEO of blockchain interoperability developer Lightblocks, informed Cointelegraph that Ethereum possesses an additional safeguard against such network compromises.

“Ethereum’s ultimate security lies not solely in cryptography or protocol rules, but in the community’s powerful social and economic coordination mechanisms,” Sitbon remarked.

Drake also emphasized another advantage he believes Ethereum holds over Bitcoin.

He explained that “if there is a 51% attack, the social layer can identify the attacker and socially slash it.”

He described this as “a superpower of PoS that is not available with PoW.” Drake’s comment pertains to the “social layer,” which refers to the human supermajority of network participants who collectively decide which software version to operate.

While Bitcoin’s simpler proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism has a smaller theoretical attack surface and a longer history of reliability, it lacks this social coordination feature.

Pavel Yashin, a researcher at P2P.org, suggested to Cointelegraph that “if the centralization is detected,” the community could address the situation by initiating a new fork of the blockchain.

He noted that for Bitcoin, the sheer amount of computing power and energy required “makes a sustained attack highly improbable,” whereas for Ethereum, “PoS introduces additional economic and governance deterrents.”

Also Read: Ethereum’s Pectra Upgrade Marks a Paradigm Shift in Wallet Technology via EIP-7702

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