At Lower Cost Basis ETH Holders Gain 22.5% Signaling Bullish Conviction CryptoQuant

Summary

• Strong LTH Accumulation: Despite Ethereum’s price correction, long-term holders significantly increased their ETH holdings (by 22.5%) and lowered their average cost basis between March and May 2025, signaling strong conviction.

• Critical Support Tested: Ethereum currently faces short-term bearish pressure and is struggling near a crucial support zone ( 1,772-1,824); failure to hold this level could trigger a sharp decline towards $1,500 due to lower buying interest below.

• Breakout Speculation Persists: While near-term technicals are weak, analysts note potential bullish reversal patterns (like a falling wedge) and upcoming roadmap developments as possible catalysts for a future breakout, contrasting with current negative market sentiment.

Long-Term Holders Increase Positions

Even as Ethereum experiences short-term price weakness, on-chain data indicates significant accumulation activity among long-term holders (LTHs).

These investors are increasing their ETH holdings and actively lowering their average purchase price (cost basis), signaling strong underlying conviction in the asset’s prospects.

This behavior contrasts with Ethereum’s price performance, which has seen a substantial correction after reaching a cycle high of $4,107 on December 16, 2024.

Accumulation Intensifies After Price Dip

A notable shift occurred around March 10, 2025, when Ethereum’s price fell to $1,866.70.

This drop pushed addresses identified as consistent accumulators (typically holding for over 155 days) into an unrealized loss position, as their average purchase price (realized price) stood at $2,026.

Instead of capitulating, these LTHs demonstrated bullish resolve.

Data tracked by CryptoQuant (“ETH: Realized Price by Accumulating Addresses”) shows this cohort responded to the downturn by strategically acquiring more ETH.

Between March 10 and May 3, they successfully reduced their collective realized price by 2.32% to $1,980.

Concurrently, their total holdings surged by 22.54%, climbing from 15.5356 million ETH to 19.0378 million ETH in less than two months.

This sustained buying suggests a deep-seated belief in Ethereum’s value proposition, despite prevailing market caution.

Short-Term Price Action Remains Precarious

Ethereum faced challenges at the start of May.

Although Ethereum began the month above $1,800, it struggled to maintain an upward trajectory and currently faces resistance near the $1,820 level.

After reaching a temporary peak of $1,873 on May 3, ETH subsequently retreated below important short-term support levels, including the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average.

Current technical indicators point toward a short-term bearish trend. A resistance line has formed around $1,835 on the ETH/USD hourly chart.

The immediate test for Ethereum is maintaining support within the $1,772 to $1,824 range.

This zone represents a high concentration of buying activity, where over 4.5 million addresses acquired more than 6.36 million ETH at an average price of approximately $1,799.

Analysts, including Ali Martinez, warn that a sustained break below this critical $1,772 support could lead to a significant price decline.

On-chain data reveals considerably less investor buying interest below this level, potentially resulting in a rapid fall towards the $1,500 mark if support fails.

Breakout Potential and Future Catalysts

Despite the near-term bearish technicals, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic about a potential turnaround.

If Ethereum manages to find support in the current zone and decisively breaks above resistance at $1,840 and then $1,880, a rally toward $1,950 and possibly $2,000 could materialize.

With indicators like the RSI below 50 and the MACD showing bearish signals, short-term hurdles remain significant.

Conclusion: Conviction Meets Uncertainty

Although long-term holders show strong confidence and technical patterns suggest potential future gains, Ethereum doesn’t have a clear reason to change its short-term direction right now.

The asset’s near future relies on the belief of holders dealing with the current uncertainty.

The asset’s immediate future seems dependent on the conviction of holders as they navigate the present uncertainty.

Whether this period of determined accumulation marks a turning point remains unclear, but the data confirms that long-term investors are significantly strengthening their positions.

Also Read: Buterin Calls for Stripped-Down Reform between Ethereum 2.0 or Ethereum Lite

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