American Crypto Spot ETFs on Hold, But Polymarket Predicts 70% Approval for XRP and Other Altcoins in 2025

Summary

• Ongoing ETF Delays in the U.S.: The SEC continues to postpone decisions on crypto spot ETFs, including for Cardano (ADA) and Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF, while new filings like 21Shares’ Dogecoin ETF emerge.

• High Approval Odds on Polymarket: Despite regulatory delays, prediction market Polymarket shows over a 68% chance of spot ETF approval in 2025 for five major altcoins: XRP (83%), Solana (SOL), Dogecoin, Cardano, and Litecoin (LTC).

• Rising Optimism for Several Altcoins: Approval odds for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have significantly increased on Polymarket, jumping from below 50% to over 70%, while XRP and Solana maintain consistently high probabilities.

• Pivotal Year for Crypto ETFs: 2025 is shaping up to be a crucial year for crypto investors, with intense speculation and the potential for new regulated ETF entry points, particularly for altcoins, if prediction market sentiment holds.

The timeline for the approval of cryptocurrency spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States remains uncertain, though market sentiment continues to be optimistic.

Recent Regulatory Delays and New Filings

Recent regulatory updates include another postponement by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding its decision on the widely discussed Cardano (ADA) ETF.

Concurrently, 21Shares has submitted a new filing for a Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, and the WisdomTree spot XRP ETF proposal has formally commenced its 21-day public comment phase.

The SEC has also extended its review period for Franklin Templeton’s proposed spot XRP ETF, with a new deadline set for June 17, 2025.

Polymarket Data Suggests Bullish Outlook for Altcoin ETFs

As news surrounding ETF applications emerges frequently, investors are actively seeking indicators of future developments.

In this context, the prediction market platform Polymarket offers insights, and its current data suggests a favorable outlook for several prominent cryptocurrencies.

According to Polymarket’s data, five out of six major altcoins—specifically XRP, Solana (SOL), Dogecoin, Cardano, and Litecoin (LTC)—are currently assigned a greater than 68% probability of receiving spot ETF approval in 2025.

XRP currently exhibits the highest likelihood at 83%, while Dogecoin has the lowest odds within this group at 68%.

Shifting Probabilities and Varied Sentiment Across Assets

Notably, the approval odds for Cardano, Dogecoin, and Litecoin have experienced a significant upward revision since their respective prediction markets were initiated, moving from probabilities below 50% to their current levels exceeding 70%.

XRP and Solana, which started with strong initial odds, have maintained their high probability ratings, consistently hovering around the 80% mark.

This optimism is not universally applied across all digital assets.

For instance, the meme coin PEPE currently holds a mere 9% chance of ETF approval according to the platform.

Implications for 2025 and Investor Access

With SEC decisions experiencing continued delays and speculation surrounding ETFs intensifying, the year 2025 is anticipated to be pivotal for cryptocurrency investors seeking new, regulated avenues for market entry via ETFs.

Should Polymarket’s probabilistic assessments prove accurate, significant developments could be forthcoming for the altcoin sector.

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